Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-10 00:00:00+00:00 12.883520 14.721954 16.713545 19.029291 21.645868 24.508662 27.876176
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 10.062955 12.500966 15.351882 18.923750 23.270925 28.381387 34.836094
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 8.443733 11.067720 14.289803 18.522750 23.921608 30.560331 39.324784
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 7.385027 10.150212 13.695066 18.549747 24.999805 33.246663 44.558480
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 6.680863 9.565876 13.403865 18.850539 26.343637 36.246602 50.276283
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 6.050392 8.994419 13.045851 18.985095 27.418278 38.902349 55.652913
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 5.434157 8.366163 12.530272 18.821243 28.018649 40.893419 60.181384
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 5.007389 7.962580 12.283361 18.994111 29.071250 43.536863 65.742073
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 4.753727 7.788365 12.345679 19.605949 30.778636 47.189499 72.945358
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 4.332880 7.311849 11.905437 19.408988 31.237249 49.006266 77.504250
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 3.779334 6.570470 10.990333 18.393540 30.347626 48.712748 78.807892
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 3.595395 6.416777 10.990132 18.820819 31.733798 51.963677 85.741646
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 3.410449 6.251233 10.966546 19.222187 33.128102 55.346885 93.151375
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 3.130256 5.896044 10.599166 19.022062 33.518450 57.146674 98.121082
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 2.851473 5.516146 10.155649 18.650172 33.579213 58.387524 102.207915
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 2.663084 5.283088 9.947496 18.666775 34.294680 60.738119 108.256712
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 2.535493 5.151274 9.907118 18.973001 35.524926 64.011006 116.031110
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 2.393783 4.979451 9.779236 19.107137 36.449591 66.797374 123.098702
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 2.224320 4.738022 9.502566 18.942709 36.815404 68.614926 128.543867
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 2.112183 4.600790 9.411157 19.116488 37.806164 71.579266 136.167145
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 2.060664 4.582629 9.546871 19.732095 39.656057 76.178071 146.971118
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 1.920050 4.366326 9.276561 19.533920 39.938870 77.918488 152.603719
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 1.704087 3.970257 8.616251 18.512295 38.558451 76.489135 152.240580